Obama President!

Ah, I can't stay up late tonight, so I thought I would end the suspense and just call this election early.

My thoughts, at this historic moment? Thanks for not asking, I'll tell you anyhow.

Obama was a strong candidate who had quite a bit of good fortune in running after an extremely unpopular Republican administration; and it was the financial crisis that gave him a landslide victory.

The big picture is that Obama inherits leadership of a nation with grave problems, and he will need another few servings of luck to go with his talent if he's going to make a big difference in setting things right.

The small picture is, today is a good day for race relations.



Thank goodness that after today I will never have to listen to another European lecture me on how incurably racist America is.

Of course it is _ and so is every European country, especially the Netherlands. America is several decades ahead in coming to terms with that problem. Call it our 'original sin'.

What a transformation the U.S. has undergone since WWII. Still, if Obama hadn't come along now, it might have been another 50 years (who knows) before a black person were elected.

But now that he has come, it's inevitably going to be a watershed: after this, anything is possible.

So, congratulations and good luck to you Obama. I give you one day for a media honeymoon, and then it's time to get cynical. You are a politician after all.


(cnn)

Condolences to John McCain. I wish I knew what the world would look like now if you had won the Republican nomination back in 2000, when you coulda woulda maybe shoulda.

(elycefeliz)

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What Does Hillary Want?

(photo stolen from random website).

It's the game anyone can play!

Pundits everywhere are opining about what Hillary Clinton wants from Barack Obama now that he has defeated her and won the Democratic presidential nomination.

It will be fun to look back and see who was right and who was wrong after the fact.

The Oracle of Amsterdam would hardly be worthy of his name if it didn't venture a pronouncement.

Thus, we insert a coin into its mouth and the Oracle begins to speak:

Hillary will be Vice President.

For those who prefer predictions to be backed up with reasoning, read on.

Use Occam's Razor. Hillary's motivation is right in front of us, and has always been: she wants to be President.

As demonstrated by her energy and persistence in the primary, she is a vigorous woman of 60 who still sees many paths to the White House.

It may be hard for those of us who don't share that kind of ambition to understand, but so it is. She has simply made the decision that she is going to "give it her all" to achieve this life goal.

So the question she has asked herself in the mirror since it became clear she was going to lose is, how can she best to leverage a very close second place finish to achieve that goal?

Answer: demand the Vice Presidency.

Consider the many paths to higher power the VP spot holds:



1) Obama screws up massively before the convention.
2) Obama dies before the convention.
3) Obama wins the 2008 election but dies in office.
4) Obama wins the 2008 election but performs so poorly she can challenge him _ or he doesn't run for whatever reason _ in 2012.
5) Obama loses the 2008 election and she can run in 2012.
6) Obama wins in 2008; whether he wins or loses in 2012 she can run again in 2016.

Number six 6) is probably the least attractive option for Hillary, but in any case, she has no reason not to make history as the first woman Vice President.

It's worth mentioning that as a member of the Democratic ticket, she can ask Obama to take over her campaign debts (I believe she owes $20 million).

She is in a strong position to get Obama to agree to make her his partner because:

a) however he feels about her personally, he risks a huge amount _ everything _ politically if he forces a rift with her.

b) He makes an exceedingly good chance of winning if he accepts her.

Politics is about compromise.

And I'm not completely cynical: I believe she will try her hardest to help him win.

By the way, don't let the statisticians convince you the Vice Presidency is a bad place for a politician with presidential aspirations.

Since the dawn of the television age, being "number two" is an excellent place to launch a campaign for the number one spot.

It's far superior to toiling away anonymously in the Senate.

Dick Cheney certainly hasn't allowed the Vice Presidency to grow less important lately.

Who knows, perhaps Obama will also promise to put Hillary in charge of Health Care reform.
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Obama Obeisance

Any candidate who dreams of the presidency knows that a visit to my father is necessary. They kiss his hands, they bring a small gift. But dad keeps his own counsel, and gives no public endorsements.

Actually, my father said he attended a fundraiser with an open mind about which candidate he's likely to vote for in 2008.

Surprisingly, given that this was an event you'd think would be populated mostly by supporters, the first question from the audience was an aggressive critique of Obama's position on some topic (I fear healthcare). My dad said Obama acquitted himself admirably, answering the arguments point by point.

Still, no endorsement from Don Sterling.

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