Dutch Weather

Though among the weakest of all blog posts, a nice one for my Dutch weather reports collection.

It says "Regular showers with chance of hail, storm, and later in the day also (wet) snow. Also, heavy wind gusts. Between the showers, also some sun."



Special bonus: the "kans op kans" seems like a mistake but maybe it's an expression I don't know. "A chance of a chance of hail."
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August Amsterdam

My fascination with Dutch weather, and Amsterdam's beauty in all seasons, continues. According to the KNMI, or Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute:

"August was pretty disappointing in terms of summery warmth and sunshine. Pretty much the whole month was determined by depressions. The weather pattern attached to that was very variable, with a lot of days of rain."



How many days, you ask?



"In many places, some rain fell on 27 of the 31 days."



Ah, but the last two days of the month were both sunny...




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DOOMSDAY part II - "Son of Superstorm"

(photo:cretinous hippy)
(Thanks to Laura K. for reminding me about this. And in response to offline requests, I'm going to try to update posts when relevant. Plus I really missed having this excellent photo on my frontpage).

Well, miraculously we survived the first "superstorm" predicted to devastate the Netherlands Nov. 24-28 by British crackpot little-appreciated scientific genius Piers Corbyn.

(photo: weatheraction.com)

The picture above, from his website, reassures me that despite Corbyn's lack of credentials and failures to predict weather accurately in the past, he's really on to something!

Here's a screenshot of the latest disaster prediction.

(weatheraction)

Damn! And I had just taken my Wellingtons off...

This guy has got it all figured out: it doesn't matter if you're wrong all the time, just keep screaming. You'll draw attention to yourself, and some small percentage of people will pay for your scam valuable forecasts out of boredom or superstition. Kind of like horoscopes.

There's just a certain percentage of people out there who want there to be some magic, mystery, romance, soap opera in their lives.


And yes, I know, I'm just helping him out by giving him attention.

But I did want to mention that it appears formerly respectable Dutch weatherman Piet Paulusma has shifted his stance somewhat: now he doesn't appear to be endorsing Corbyn's predictions.

On the other hand, he's not exactly disowning them either:
On his blog entry from Monday, Nov. 26, titled "Piers Corbyn: Superstorm coming a little later," he includes a story from laatste nieuws.nl. Here's my translation of the first two sentences:

"The chance of a superstorm in the Netherlands is not yet over. So says British weatherman Piers Corbyn, according to whom the extremely heavy winds will now be coming a little later. He predicts, with a 72 percent probability, that the storm will be raging over the Netherlands at the end of this week or the beginning of December. Most gusts will have a speed of 110 kph."

Did you know that 28 percent of all statistics are just made up right on the spot?

Anyhow, given that Corbyn has extended his prediction, it's only fitting that I extend my wager offer: 100 euros says no winds measured at more than 100 kph in De Bilt up to and including Dec. 2.

(jon appleyard)
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DOOMSDAY!

(photo:cretinous hippy)
The end is nigh, says some British wacko ("Piers Corbyn") who studies sunspots and solar flares, or something like that. I won't dignify him with a link.

The basic idea is, an enormous storm will strike Northern Europe Nov. 24-28, causing devastating floods in the Netherlands.

A formerly respectable Dutch TV weather man called Piet Paulusma is buying it. I have to admit I've never heard of him before, but then, he works for SBS6 and that's not typically my 'go-to' station for news.

Paulsma's (Dutch language) blog, which I also won't dignify with a link:

By mid-month "an expanding depression will develop over the Atlantic Ocean due to tropical air. At its edges, disturbances will form, and a very active cold front. The result is a phenomenon that can be described as a superstorm; an instance that will be bigger than the storm of 1987 and that of 1703."

And then 200kph winds, Anne Frank's tree is toast, the Delta Works crumble, zombies moan and gibber in the streets, dogs and cats start living together peacefully.

All this with an 80 percent chance, which leaves Corbyn and Paulsma with what can best be termed "an easy 'out'" when it all fails to materialize.

(photo:sweejak; painting:"The Wreck")

I for one am very worried about Holland flooding. Always have been, ever since I came, even before global warming was recognized as a real big deal.

My primary issues:
a) if we're below sea level and it rains too much, how do they get all the water to drain out to the sea in time?
b) I know the dunes and dikes are strong, yadda yadda yadda, but WHAT IF there's a break? Pretty hard to plug a breach in a sea dike. And there's more water in the sea than you might think.

(no credit necessary due to annoying imprint on picture)



Now you wouldn't think this story would have ever made it off Corbyn's website, let alone Paulsma's, but in this country, the weather is always news.

Or at least, that's what the editors think, so the story's been widely distributed.

The Royal Dutch Weather Institute trotted out somebody to point out that nobody can predict weather more than 10 days in advance (see: The Butterfly Effect)

Institute expert Cees Molenaars was widely quoted as saying "This is scaring people unnecessarily, and that's dangerous."

However, Paulsma (who has gotten a generous helping of free publicity out of this already) shot back by digging up an old post from the KNMI's website in which they discuss the possibility of a "superstorm."

"Very unusual circumstances, in which two storm depressions combine, can lead to superstorms. Superstorms are characterized by unheard of wind speeds and very extreme downpours.
They've never been recorded in our region. (But) climate models show that they can now in principle occur above the North Atlantic Ocean. Due to the greenhouse effect on the upper atmosphere, the area where they happen can be shifted in the direction of Europe. The Netherlands, too, could then experience this.
The shortcomings of our current climate models also mean that we can't determine the chance of such a shift very well."

Touche!

(photo:daily mail)

However, I don't need to channel the Oracle of Amsterdam to tell you it's not happening.
I'll put my money where my mouth is: I'm offering all comers 10-1 odds that there's not a single gust of wind above 100kph measured in "De Bilt" (the Dutch weather service's chief measuring station, near Utrecht) during Nov. 24-28.

(photo of new orleans flooding:nola.com)

(photo:Johanna)
Hey! Keep your eyes on the sign!
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