An Overview of Things Threatening Dutch Society

(photo:cretinous hippy)

One of the better press releases to cross my desk recently was this little gem:

"An Overview of Things Threatening Dutch Society."

Sent out by the Ministry of Internal Affairs on May 30.

"The cabinet has made an inventory of the threats that could come up on us."

Executive Summary (the 'smart quotes' are in the original text):

"The breakout of a flu epidemic forms one of the greatest threats to Dutch society. The breakout of a pandemic is 'probable' and the results will be enormous. The oil crisis is also a great threat for national safety. A great sea flood is 'very improbable' because of the protection by dunes, dikes and other water protections. But if one of those really big floods did happen, the consequences are 'catostrophic.' In these scenarios, Dutch society would be seriously disrupted. There could be talk of (many) fatal victims, great economic damage, serious disturbance of daily life, and fear or anger among the populace."

"The chances of other threats to national safety are a little or much greater, but the consequences are smaller."

"The chances of a big heatwave with drought, a national power outage, or left or right-extremist riots are in the 'possible' to 'probable' category. Depending on the circumstances, the consequences would then be limited to serious."

Ah, your tax euros at work.

I find it comforting and intriguing that "Immigration" and "Threat of Muslims introducing Sharia Law" didn't make the list.

But who actually put this list together, you ask?

"Different ministries have worked together with a number of independent institutes and scientists to work up the list and the scenarios. Corporations and other governments helped, too."

And why?

"On the basis of the list and the scenarios per threat the Cabinet is taking measures."

I shall await news of further progress anxiously.

PS: Please don't underestimate the flooding danger, guys!

(jon appleyard)

Anybody think I'm kidding about this PR? Full text in Dutch after the "more."


Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties

Persbericht Ministerraad

30 mei 2008

RISICO’S VOOR NEDERLANDSE SAMENLEVING OP EEN RIJ

De uitbraak van een grieppandemie vormt een van de grootste risico’s voor de Nederlandse samenleving. Het uitbreken van een pandemie is ‘waarschijnlijk’ en de gevolgen zullen enorm zijn. Ook een oliecrisis is een groot risico voor de nationale veiligheid. Een grote overstroming vanuit zee is ‘zeer onwaarschijnlijk’ door de bescherming door duinen, dijken en andere waterkeringen. Maar als zo’n echt grote overstroming zich zou voordoen, zijn de gevolgen ‘catastrofaal’. In deze scenario’s raakt de Nederlandse samenleving ernstig ontwricht. Zo kan er sprake zijn van (veel) dodelijke slachtoffers, grote economische schade, ernstige verstoring van het dagelijks leven en angst of woede onder de bevolking. De kansen op andere bedreigingen voor de nationale veiligheid zijn iets of veel groter, maar de gevolgen zijn kleiner. Zo vallen de kansen op een hevige hittegolf met grote droogte, landelijke uitval van de stroomvoorziening of links- of rechts-extremistische rellen in de categorieën ‘mogelijk’ tot ‘waarschijnlijk’. Afhankelijk van de omstandigheden zijn de gevolgen dan beperkt tot ernstig.

Dat blijkt uit de inventarisatie die het kabinet heeft laten maken van dreigingen die op ons af zouden kunnen komen en die tot ontwrichting van de samenleving zouden kunnen leiden. De inventarisatie volgt uit de strategie nationale veiligheid, en is met voorrang gericht op de thema’s klimaatverandering, energievoorziening en polarisatie en radicalisering. Op basis van de inventarisatie en de scenario’s per dreiging neemt het kabinet maatregelen. Op die manier kan zo veel mogelijk voorkomen worden dat de maatschappij ontwricht raakt.

De ministerraad heeft op voorstel van minister Ter Horst van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties besloten de zogenoemde Nationale Risicobeoordeling naar de Tweede Kamer te sturen. Verschillende ministeries hebben samen met een aantal onafhankelijke kennisinstituten en wetenschappers de inventarisatie en de scenario’s opgesteld. Ook het bedrijfsleven en medeoverheden hebben hieraan meegewerkt.

De risico’s die de Nederlandse samenleving bedreigen zijn ingedeeld in drie categorieën:

1. Grote kans, grote gevolgen

* De uitbraak van een wereldwijde grieppandemie, met een virus dat tot dan toe nog onbekend is. Nederland heeft de afgelopen jaren al veel gedaan om verspreiding in Nederland te voorkomen, zich hierop voor te bereiden en er goed op te kunnen reageren. De ernst en omvang van dit scenario vraagt continue aandacht en de voorbereiding is nog niet klaar.
* Een oliecrisis of olieschaarste als gevolg van wereldwijde politieke ontwikkelingen. De Nederlandse regering streeft naar energiebesparing, het meer inzetten van duurzame energie en het internationaal spreiden van de herkomst van olie.

2. Kleine kans, maar grote gevolgen

* Grote overstromingen. De kans dat Nederland getroffen wordt door grote overstromingen vanuit zee is zeer onwaarschijnlijk. Om de veiligheid op peil te houden zijn de programma’s van de regering "Zwakke schakels kust", "Ruimte voor de rivier" en het "Hoogwaterbeschermingsprogramma" van groot belang.
* Moedwillige verstoring elektriciteit (regionaal). De kans hierop is onwaarschijnlijk, er zijn geen aanwijzingen voor een aanslag op de elektriciteitsvoorziening. Bovendien worden al veel maatregelen genomen om het elektriciteitsnetwerk te beveiligen.

3. Grotere kans, kleinere gevolgen

* Polarisatie en radicalisering. Met het "Actieplan polarisatie en radicalisering" heeft het kabinet een aanpak gepresenteerd gericht op signaleren, voorkomen en interveniëren. Het lokale bestuur speelt daarbij een centrale rol.
* Landelijke uitval elektriciteit. De bedrijfszekerheid van het elektriciteitsnet is groot. Door betere Noordwest-Europese afspraken over verdeling en transportcapaciteit moeten regionale problemen worden opgevangen.
* Hitte en droogte. Als gevolg van klimaatveranderingen neemt de kans hierop toe. Sectoren die afhankelijk zijn van koelwater moeten zich hierop voorbereiden, net als de binnenvaartsector i.v.m. lage waterstanden. Ook de voorbereiding op grote natuurbranden vraagt aandacht.

RVD, 30.05.2008

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DOOMSDAY part II - "Son of Superstorm"

(photo:cretinous hippy)
(Thanks to Laura K. for reminding me about this. And in response to offline requests, I'm going to try to update posts when relevant. Plus I really missed having this excellent photo on my frontpage).

Well, miraculously we survived the first "superstorm" predicted to devastate the Netherlands Nov. 24-28 by British crackpot little-appreciated scientific genius Piers Corbyn.

(photo: weatheraction.com)

The picture above, from his website, reassures me that despite Corbyn's lack of credentials and failures to predict weather accurately in the past, he's really on to something!

Here's a screenshot of the latest disaster prediction.

(weatheraction)

Damn! And I had just taken my Wellingtons off...

This guy has got it all figured out: it doesn't matter if you're wrong all the time, just keep screaming. You'll draw attention to yourself, and some small percentage of people will pay for your scam valuable forecasts out of boredom or superstition. Kind of like horoscopes.

There's just a certain percentage of people out there who want there to be some magic, mystery, romance, soap opera in their lives.


And yes, I know, I'm just helping him out by giving him attention.

But I did want to mention that it appears formerly respectable Dutch weatherman Piet Paulusma has shifted his stance somewhat: now he doesn't appear to be endorsing Corbyn's predictions.

On the other hand, he's not exactly disowning them either:
On his blog entry from Monday, Nov. 26, titled "Piers Corbyn: Superstorm coming a little later," he includes a story from laatste nieuws.nl. Here's my translation of the first two sentences:

"The chance of a superstorm in the Netherlands is not yet over. So says British weatherman Piers Corbyn, according to whom the extremely heavy winds will now be coming a little later. He predicts, with a 72 percent probability, that the storm will be raging over the Netherlands at the end of this week or the beginning of December. Most gusts will have a speed of 110 kph."

Did you know that 28 percent of all statistics are just made up right on the spot?

Anyhow, given that Corbyn has extended his prediction, it's only fitting that I extend my wager offer: 100 euros says no winds measured at more than 100 kph in De Bilt up to and including Dec. 2.

(jon appleyard)
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DOOMSDAY!

(photo:cretinous hippy)
The end is nigh, says some British wacko ("Piers Corbyn") who studies sunspots and solar flares, or something like that. I won't dignify him with a link.

The basic idea is, an enormous storm will strike Northern Europe Nov. 24-28, causing devastating floods in the Netherlands.

A formerly respectable Dutch TV weather man called Piet Paulusma is buying it. I have to admit I've never heard of him before, but then, he works for SBS6 and that's not typically my 'go-to' station for news.

Paulsma's (Dutch language) blog, which I also won't dignify with a link:

By mid-month "an expanding depression will develop over the Atlantic Ocean due to tropical air. At its edges, disturbances will form, and a very active cold front. The result is a phenomenon that can be described as a superstorm; an instance that will be bigger than the storm of 1987 and that of 1703."

And then 200kph winds, Anne Frank's tree is toast, the Delta Works crumble, zombies moan and gibber in the streets, dogs and cats start living together peacefully.

All this with an 80 percent chance, which leaves Corbyn and Paulsma with what can best be termed "an easy 'out'" when it all fails to materialize.

(photo:sweejak; painting:"The Wreck")

I for one am very worried about Holland flooding. Always have been, ever since I came, even before global warming was recognized as a real big deal.

My primary issues:
a) if we're below sea level and it rains too much, how do they get all the water to drain out to the sea in time?
b) I know the dunes and dikes are strong, yadda yadda yadda, but WHAT IF there's a break? Pretty hard to plug a breach in a sea dike. And there's more water in the sea than you might think.

(no credit necessary due to annoying imprint on picture)



Now you wouldn't think this story would have ever made it off Corbyn's website, let alone Paulsma's, but in this country, the weather is always news.

Or at least, that's what the editors think, so the story's been widely distributed.

The Royal Dutch Weather Institute trotted out somebody to point out that nobody can predict weather more than 10 days in advance (see: The Butterfly Effect)

Institute expert Cees Molenaars was widely quoted as saying "This is scaring people unnecessarily, and that's dangerous."

However, Paulsma (who has gotten a generous helping of free publicity out of this already) shot back by digging up an old post from the KNMI's website in which they discuss the possibility of a "superstorm."

"Very unusual circumstances, in which two storm depressions combine, can lead to superstorms. Superstorms are characterized by unheard of wind speeds and very extreme downpours.
They've never been recorded in our region. (But) climate models show that they can now in principle occur above the North Atlantic Ocean. Due to the greenhouse effect on the upper atmosphere, the area where they happen can be shifted in the direction of Europe. The Netherlands, too, could then experience this.
The shortcomings of our current climate models also mean that we can't determine the chance of such a shift very well."

Touche!

(photo:daily mail)

However, I don't need to channel the Oracle of Amsterdam to tell you it's not happening.
I'll put my money where my mouth is: I'm offering all comers 10-1 odds that there's not a single gust of wind above 100kph measured in "De Bilt" (the Dutch weather service's chief measuring station, near Utrecht) during Nov. 24-28.

(photo of new orleans flooding:nola.com)

(photo:Johanna)
Hey! Keep your eyes on the sign!
MORE

(photo credit: flickr's supersuus)
Talk about long-term planning. The Dutch are working on plans to deal with rising sea levels due to global warming through the year 2200.

"We want to make sure that there's still a Netherlands a century from now," Tineke Huizinga, the country's top water official, told state broadcaster NOS.
"We don't want to just let the water flow and all have to move to Germany."

-AP

Now that's thinking ahead!

(photo by goya)
The two most awesomest ideas are re-routing the Rhine and building "breaker" islands off the coast.
Me, I want to put a rubber dinghy in my attic. Just in case.
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